Democrats and moderate Republicans posted unexpectedly strong results in Alaska’s primary election results for state House and Senate on Tuesday night, with several incumbent conservative Republicans trailing in the early tally.
Alaska’s primary elections have traditionally seen conservative Republicans turn out in disproportionally large numbers, but this year’s results don’t reflect that trend.
“It tells me that there’s a fresh breeze blowing through the political air in Alaska,” said Republican candidate Chuck Kopp, who led Rep. Craig Johnson, R-Anchorage, by 20 percentage points on election night.
Under Alaska’s electoral system, the primary has few direct consequences on the state’s legislative races. Four candidates, regardless of party, advance to the general election, and only two of the 50 state House and Senate races have more than four candidates.
Furthermore, the electorate in Alaska’s primary elections is much smaller than it is in the general election.
With 387 of 403 precincts reporting results by 1 a.m. Wednesday morning, ballots had been counted from 15.94% of the state’s registered voters.
That figure will increase over the next 10 days as absentee ballots are added to the total. Two years ago, only about three-quarters of the primary total were included in the election night tally.
Even with absentee ballots included, overall turnout is likely to be near the record-low for a primary, recorded in 2016, when just 17.22% of voters turned out.
“(The primary) is not an accurate indicator of what the general’s going to look like,” said Amber Lee, a campaign consultant for two Democratic legislative candidates, explaining that voters shouldn’t read too much into the primary results.
On Wednesday night, that didn’t keep some candidates from celebrating, at least in small part.
Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans hope to create or maintain coalition majorities in the state House and Senate, and the primary results seemed to indicate that they’re on course to do so.
In central Anchorage, longtime incumbent Democratic Rep. Andy Josephson has typically run close re-election races. On Wednesday night, he led his Republican challenger by 12 percentage points.
“I was pleasantly surprised,” he said by phone from Chicago, where he’s participating in the Democratic National Convention.
“I see some things that for progressives are quite promising,” he said.
Josephson believes the presidential election may be boosting down-ballot Democrats and moderates.
“I believe the shakeup in my party at the top of the ticket is going to result in some more enthusiasm,” he said. “(Kamala Harris) will almost certainly not win Alaska, but I do think there are going to be some people who otherwise wouldn’t have gone to the polls who are going to decide that this is worth their time, and from my perspective, that’s exciting.”
It may also be boosting moderate Republicans.
A former legislator, Kopp previously served in a multipartisan coalition House majority as a Republican. Johnson is chair of the House Rules Committee and a key member of the predominantly Republican House majority.
“I believe that overall, the district sees me as a far more collaborative, consensus-oriented candidate who will work hard for the good of the entire district, not just good for any one political party or or a partisan interest,” Kopp said.
In East Anchorage, Democratic challenger Ted Eischeid led Rep. Stanley Wright, R-Anchorage, by 19 votes out of about 1,095 cast. In South Anchorage, nonpartisan candidate Ky Holland had more than 40% of the vote in House District 9, with three Republicans — Lee Ellis, Lucy Bauer and Brandy Pennington — each having about 20% of the vote. Bauer held a narrow lead among the trio, with 21.7%.
Also in South Anchorage, perennial Democratic candidate Janice Park led incumbent Republican Sen. James Kaufman, 48.44-45.83%. A second Republican candidate, Harold Borbridge, held 5.72%.
“I think education is transcending into people’s No. 1 issue,” said former Democratic House Majority Leader Chris Tuck, speaking on an election night telecast hosted by the politics site Alaska Landmine.
“I’m shocked,” said former Republican Rep. Charisse Millett on the same telecast, speaking about Park’s lead over Kaufman.
The night didn’t entirely favor progressives and moderates. In Fairbanks, Republican challenger Leslie Hajdukovich led Democratic incumbent Sen. Scott Kawasaki by 2% in the election night tally.
Despite trailing, Kawasaki said he’s “pretty comfortable with the numbers.”
“It’s 75 days until the whole enchilada, so I don’t think anybody’s going to take their gas off the pedal,” he said.
Some candidates eliminated
Candidates and campaigns are now turning their attention toward November’s ranked choice general election, and progressives’ good August night could turn into a chilly November if conservatives focus their support in the months ahead.
With all precincts counted in House District 36 — which includes land in the Interior —Democratic candidate Brandon Kowalski had 34.36% of the vote, highest among six challengers.
Libertarian candidate James Fields (6.59%) and Republican Dana Mock (11.49%) are on pace to be eliminated under the top-four system.
Other Republicans in the race have said they may drop out in order to coalesce support around one challenger. As of Wednesday night, Republican candidate Rebecca Schwanke, with 19.38% of the vote, was the No. 2 candidate in that race.
Before election day, Schwanke said, “I’ve met every candidate in our race now, and of four Republicans, all of us share a very common concern that if one of us comes out at the head of the Republican list, that it’s actually quite important for the rest of us to get behind that person and and work in concert with the process, and try not to hand it off to the minority candidate that’s in the in the race.”
With all precincts counted in Eagle River, Republican incumbent Sen. Kelly Merrick led a pack of five candidates with 33.83% of the vote.
Former state House Rep. Sharon Jackson, a Republican, is in fifth among the five candidates, with 7.51% of the vote, and is on pace to be eliminated.
Before the election, some Republican candidates in the Eagle River state Senate district vowed to withdraw and support the top-finishing Republican in the primary. But some of the Republicans in the race were motivated to run by Merrick’s status as a member of the Senate’s bipartisan majority, and it isn’t clear whether they’ll follow through now that she is in the lead.
Merrick’s closest challenger, Jared Goecker, had 33.14% of the vote.
Around the state
In Ketchikan, where independent Rep. Dan Ortiz declined to run for re-election, Republican candidate Jeremy Bynum had just slightly under 50% of the election day tally against two nonpartisan candidates, Grant EchoHawk and Agnes Moran.
All other Southeast Alaska seats on the ballot this year are unopposed.
In Kodiak, Rep. Louise Stutes, R-Kodiak, secured more than 80% of the vote against Libertarian Leighton Radner.
On the Kenai Peninsula, incumbent Republicans Sarah Vance and Justin Ruffridge each had notable leads on election night. Two Republicans seeking to replace Rep. Ben Carpenter — Bill Elam and John Hillyer — were running in a virtual dead heat, with Hillyer leading by fewer than 50 votes out of almost 3,000 cast.
In the area’s state Senate race, incumbent Sen. Jesse Bjorkman held almost 44% of the vote. Carpenter, his leading challenger, had 41.23%.
In Anchorage, incumbent Democratic Sens. Matt Claman and Forrest Dunbar each received well over 50% of the election day tally.
For the state House in Anchorage, incumbents generally led on election night. Former Republican state Sen. Mia Costello, now seeking a seat in the House, had 51.41% of the vote in a race that also includes Democratic candidate Denny Wells, with 44.26%, and perennial candidate Dustin Darden, at 4.34%.
In the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, incumbents led across the board. Sen. David Wilson, R-Wasilla, had 41.21% of the vote, with two Republican challengers splitting the remainder. In a four-way state House race, Rep. Jesse Sumner, R-Wasilla, had 32.67% of the vote after doing virtually no campaigning.
In Fairbanks, incumbents also led after election day. In the race for the seat vacated by Republican Sen. Click Bishop, Republican candidate Mike Cronk led a four-way race with 43.39% of the vote. Undeclared candidate Savannah Fletcher had 42.75% of the vote in second place.
With only one exception, incumbents also led in rural Alaska. On the North Slope and in the Northwest Arctic Borough, Democratic candidate Robyn “Niayuq” Burke had 38.66% of the vote with 14 of 20 precincts reporting.
Fellow Democrat Saima “Ikrik” Chase had 34.91%, and Thomas “Ikaaq” Baker, appointed to the House as a Republican but now running as an undeclared candidate, had 26.43% of the vote.
Thousands of absentee ballots remain uncounted and will be added to the totals across Alaska in the coming days.
State law allows absentee ballots to arrive at election offices up to 10 days after the primary election day, as long as they were postmarked on or before election day.
Election certification is expected Sept. 1.
• James Brooks is a longtime Alaska reporter, having previously worked at the Anchorage Daily News, Juneau Empire, Kodiak Mirror and Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. This article originally appeared online at alaskabeacon.com. Alaska Beacon, an affiliate of States Newsroom, is an independent, nonpartisan news organization focused on connecting Alaskans to their state government.
