Juneau School District officials are projecting a loss of about half a million in funding to the district this year following a preliminary count in early September that revealed overall student enrollment coming in below what was originally projected.
[New school year starts for students in Juneau]
“We’re looking at roughly $500,000 to $600,000, which would be a good estimate at what we’re losing with the 51 students down right now,” said Cassee Olin, the district’s director of administrative services, in an interview Wednesday.
The district initially projected the 2023-2024 school year’s enrollment to be 4,240 students, which would have been a slight increase from the 2022-2023 school year’s actual enrollment count. However, distinct figures recorded on Sept. 1 showed an actual enrollment of 4,189 students — a net loss of about 39 students from the previous year and 51 students below what was projected.
According to the data, elementary school enrollment is down 88 students and middle school enrollment is down 35 students compared to last year. However, high school enrollment did see an increase of about 65 students, along with optional programming rising by about 19 students.
Olin said the enrollment numbers recorded Sept. 1 could still fluctuate a bit before the official count begins Oct. 2 through Oct. 27. She said the final reported figures during that period will be reported to the state in early November.
Though the drop in enrollment is less in the 2023-2024 school year than in recent years, especially following the pandemic, overall district enrollment in Juneau has been on the decline for decades.
In 1999, it was reported that there were about 5,701 students in Juneau’s schools — nearly 1,500 more students than there are today. Even today, recent enrollment forecasts looking toward enrollment in 2032 reveal an even more dire future.
According to data shared by census figures in a 2022 report, the mid-range forecast for Juneau’s district enrolled in 2032 is expected to be about 3,036 — about a 1,200-student drop from where enrollment is today.
The report attributed the drop primarily to declining birth rates — including a 12% drop from 2018 to 2019 and another 6% drop in 2020 — reflecting a nationwide drop for more than a decade that “is likely to persist.”
Olin said each student counted that comes in below the projections equates to about a $10,000 to $12,000 loss in funding to the district. She said with 51 students expected to be the number that came in under the district’s projection, that’s what creates about a $500,000 loss in funding.
“I wouldn’t say it’s a shock to me — coming back from COVID, it’s been very hard to make projections, it’s not a science that you can really deal with,” Olin said. “So it’s not a shock, but you could say it’s unfortunate that we’re in this situation.”
Olin said following the final reported figures being sent to the state, it will be likely that the Juneau Board of Education will have to revise its budget to make up for the gap.
“Yes it will be something that when they come in, we will have to bring a budget revision to the board and they will have to make some decisions in regards to if they will freeze hiring or make cuts,” she said, noting those discussions will likely happen in late November to early December.
New District Superintendent Frank Hauser said he wants to wait until the final numbers are counted in October before assessing the situation.
“I think right now it’s too early to look at these numbers and say these are going to be our final numbers, because that final count doesn’t happen until the end of October,” he said. “We’ve got a process. We’ll go through the board and review those numbers when we get the final student count, and still continue to provide a great education for our students, support our community and work together to meet the needs of our student population.”
This isn’t the first time the district has faced difficult budget cuts this year — the school board was forced to make some position cuts to the district in July to offset state funds vetoed by Gov. Mike Dunleavy which left the district with a $758,181 budget shortfall. Two full-time jobs were eliminated, along with the equivalent of 3.6 other full-time jobs that will be covered with remaining COVID-19 relief funds following the budget adjustments.
Board President Deedie Sorensen said the projected loss in funding will likely create another tough situation in which the board will go back to the budget again for another round of cost cutting.
“Yeah it is concerning,” she said in an interview Wednesday. “We didn’t build our budget on some wild-eyed projection and I would be surprised if they came in higher than expected. We tried to build it as close to reality as we could.”
• Contact reporter Clarise Larson at clarise.larson@juneauempire.com or (651) 528-1807.
