Republican Mike Dunleavy, left, and Democrat Mark Begich, right, are the two leading candidates in the race to replace incumbent independent Gov. Bill Walker. (Composite image)

Republican Mike Dunleavy, left, and Democrat Mark Begich, right, are the two leading candidates in the race to replace incumbent independent Gov. Bill Walker. (Composite image)

After Walker quits, governor race now ‘down to the wire’

Survey indicates greater support for Begich, but Republican in front

With Gov. Bill Walker out of the picture, the gubernatorial race is closer than ever.

Mike Dunleavy still leads the race to become Alaska’s next governor, according to the latest poll released Tuesday, but Walker’s former supporters appear to be giving Mark Begich a boost in the race’s final two weeks.

The first poll of likely voters taken since Walker withdrew from the race on Friday shows Dunleavy leading Begich by four percentage points, 48 to 44. That’s less than half of the lead Dunleavy had when independent incumbent Walker and Democratic candidate Begich were competing for the attention of voters who want an alternative to the Republican frontrunner.

“I think it’s going to come down to the wire,” Ivan Moore, who owns firm Alaska Survey Research, said in an interview.

Walker’s withdrawal isn’t a pure benefit for Begich: According to Moore’s survey, not all Walker backers are choosing Begich over Dunleavy, and some intend to keep their votes with Walker, even after he quit the race.

The poll, performed by Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Research, was conducted from among 500 likely or certain voters between Oct. 19 and Oct. 22. It has a 4.4 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence interval, was not commissioned by any of the campaigns, and was performed scientifically. Two weeks remain before Election Day.

By phone, Moore said he began polling Alaskans within “five to 10 minutes” of Walker’s withdrawal announcement Friday afternoon. Walker abandoned his campaign in an announcement Friday at the Alaska Federation of Natives conference in Anchorage, just days after the resignation of Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott, who made “inappropriate comments” to a female. It’s still unknown exactly what was said to the person.

The poll comes with an important caveat: In asking its questions, it deliberately stated that Walker has withdrawn from the race. That could sway the results of the poll, because Walker’s withdrawal came after ballots were printed, and not all voters may know of the withdrawal when they go to vote. His name will still appear alongside those of Begich, Dunleavy and Libertarian candidate Billy Toien.

Moore said the wording of the question was done out of necessity. He had seen the governor’s withdrawal speech on the internet, and some people saw it in person at the Alaska Federation of Natives Conference, but “aside from us folks, no one knew about it at that point,” he said.

That posed a problem for Moore, who wanted to begin the poll quickly. Without informing respondents, he risked getting a “kind of variable mish-mash through the fielding period” as more Alaskans learned about the news.

”What we would have gotten back was starkly different results between Friday and Monday,” he said.

Dunleavy has consistently led in polls of the four-way governor’s race (Moore’s polls have not included questions about Toien) through the summer. FiveThirtyEight, a website that takes a numbers-based approach to reporting the news, aggregates polls from a variety of sources. According to its estimate, Dunleavy had a 2-in-3 chance of winning the race after Walker’s withdrawal but before Moore’s poll.

Even after informing participants that Walker has withdrawn from the race, Moore’s poll shows some Alaskans will vote for the incumbent in the race. That could be significant in the final tally.

Endorsements shift

Alaska’s two largest labor organizations, the AFL-CIO and the National Education Association-Alaska, have shifted their support from Walker to Begich. The AFL-CIO announced their move Monday, and NEA-Alaska declared its switch Tuesday.

Dunleavy picked up some support as well. Incumbent Republican Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, announced his support for Dunleavy, as did U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska and U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska.

No do-overs

The Alaska Division of Elections will not allow absentee voters to change their vote if they turned in their ballots before Walker’s withdrawal announcement on Friday. According to division figures, 3,076 completed absentee ballots had arrived at elections offices by the end of the day Friday. The division said anyone who had voted an absentee ballot but not yet mailed it can contact the division for a replacement ballot.

Early voting figures

Division of elections figures show 3,007 Alaskans cast early votes Monday, the first day polls were open across the state. In Juneau, early votes can be cast at the State Office Building from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., Monday through Friday. The elections office in the Mendenhall Mall Annex is also open for voting during the same times plus Saturday, Nov. 3, 10 a.m.-4 p.m., and Sunday, Nov. 4, noon-4 p.m.

Election Day is Nov. 6.


• Contact reporter James Brooks at jbrooks@juneauempire.com or 523-2258.


More in Home

Runners start the Sweetheart Relay on Saturday at Sandy Beach. (Klas Stolpe / Juneau Empire)
Sweetheart race, a run for love and waffles

Saturday race features appetites aplenty in diverse field.

Juneau Douglas’s Elias Dybdahl makes a layup during Juneau Douglas 58-53 loss to Ketchikan at the Clarke Cochrane Gymnasium on Saturday. (Christopher Mullen/ Ketchikan Daily News)
Crimson Bears split road series, fall to Kings in Ketchikan on Saturday after win on Friday

JDHS finishes 1-3 in conference, will return to Ketchikan in three weeks for Region V tournament.

Members of the Alaska State Employees Association and AFSCME Local 52 holds a protest on the steps of the Alaska State Capitol on Friday, Feb. 14, 2025. (Jasz Garrett / Juneau Empire)
Alaska state employees rally for more pay and benefits on same day mass federal firings occur

Participants at state Capitol seek revival of pensions, release of state salary data withheld by governor.

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, on Friday, Feb. 14, 2025. President Trump shared a quotation on social media, making it clear it was one he wanted people to absorb: “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.” (Al Drago/The New York Times)
Trump: ‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Quote sometimes attributed to Napoleon posted on White House’s official X account.

A U.S. Forest Service office sign in Juneau on Feb. 14, 2025. (Jasz Garrett / Juneau Empire)
Trump’s federal layoffs hit wide range of Alaska agencies on Friday, with fears of many more to come

Murkowski: “Trying to get answers about the impact…but the response so far has been evasive and inadequate.”

Jonathan Rasch skates back to shore with his dog after spending hours looking for a man who fell through the ice on Friday, Feb. 7, 2025, on Chilkoot Lake near Haines. Rasch was skating on the lake when he heard the man screaming for help and used his Garmin inReach to call for help. (Rashah McChesney/Chilkat Valley News)
After Haines man disappears, locals and state officials warn of the dangers of ice skating on lake

After Haines man disappears, locals and state officials warn of the dangers of ice skating on lake

Juneau-Douglas’s Brandon Casperson is fouled as Ketchikan players swarm him during Juneau Douglas’s 61-50 victory over Kayhi at the Clarke Cochrane Gymnasium on Friday. Photo by Christopher Mullen/ Ketchikan Daily News
JDHS boys win on the road at Ketchikan

Crimson Bears slay Kings at site of region tournament.

Juneau-Douglas High School: Yadaa.at Kalé sophomore Layla Tokuoka (14) threads a pass through Ketchikan senior Shyla Abajian (5), junior Lauren Tucker (11) and junior Kylie Brendible (32) during the Crimson Bears’ 51-23 win over the Lady Kings on Friday in Juneau. (Klas Stolpe / Juneau Empire)
JDHS girls finish home sweep of Ketchikan

Crimson Bears have perfect conference record over Lady Kings

A shelter staff member takes a dog who is currently boarding at Juneau Animal Rescue outside on Feb. 13, 2025. The animal shelter needs more space both outside and in, according to the executive director. It could also use a guillotine door to allow dogs easier access to the outdoors. (Jasz Garrett / Juneau Empire)
Juneau Animal Rescue hopes to be ‘feline’ the love at annual fundraiser

The shelter is still in need of a new building and hopes to continue educating the community.

Most Read