This story has been corrected to note Trump’s somewhat positive rating is 16.6%, not 1.6%.
President Donald Trump is both the most popular and most strongly disliked politician in a survey of Alaskans conducted earlier this month, while U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski is both the least popular and yet has the most strong supporters.
Trump got a “very positive” rating from 31.4% of respondents, “somewhat positive” from 16.6%, “somewhat negative” from 6.5% and “very negative” from 42.7%.” Both “very” results were far higher than the results for Alaska’s governor and three-member congressional delegation.
Those results mark the stark division of opinions statewide and nationally as the Trump administration has shattered the status quo across a wide spectrum of economic, social and constitutional norms. But the responses also don’t show large shifts in opinions about Trump and Alaska’s top politicians since he was elected to a second term last November, said Ivan Moore, owner of Alaska Survey Research, which conducted the poll.
“I looked back at Trump’s positive-negative in the last three surveys I’ve done dating back to October, and actually his rating is very, very similar now to the way it was back in October,” Moore said. “In January we did one — he’d been elected, he won the race, but before he was actually inaugurated — and his numbers were a little bit higher then, kind of honeymoon-like. And then it’s come back down in this one.”
The results are more positive overall for Trump and conservative politicians than the responses in a nationwide poll released this week, which is consistent with Alaska’s long status as a politically “red” state. The Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows Trump with a favorability rating of 44% positive and 52% negative, compared to 49-48% shortly after the election.
Among Alaska’s all-Republican delegation, Sen. Dan Sullivan emerged as a clear favorite in Moore’s survey with a 47.2%-41.3% positive-negative rating that is outside the poll’s 3.5% margin of error at both ends. Murkowski’s ratings were 42.7%-50.5% and first-term Rep. Nick Begich III’s were 40.2%-45.6%.
All of the delegation members’ numbers were similar during surveys in October and January, Moore said.
Sullivan’s support comes as he has solidly aligned himself with Trump and — unlike Begich, who has done the same — the senator has the benefit of an incumbency extending back to 2015. Murkowski, meanwhile, is the state’s senior senator since taking office in 2002, but has become nationally prominent as one of the few congressional Republicans openly critical of Trump on some issues.
As a result, she leads the delegation in the percentage of survey respondents who strongly approve or strongly disapprove of her. A total of 16% gave her very favorable ratings (compared to 15.5% for Sullivan and 13.9% for Begich) and 31.3% very unfavorable (compared to 22.9% for Sullivan and 28.1% for Begich).
Begich, who defeated Democrat Mary Peltola after she served one full term, is polling lower in Moore’s surveys than she did during her first months in office. She emerged from relative obscurity to global prominence as the first Alaska Native member of Congress, with favorable-unfavorable ratings of 52%-27% in October of 2022 and 54%-30% in July of 2023. But those would trend downward through the end of last year’s election that saw Begich defeat Peltola by a 51.3%-48.7% split after ranked-choice votes were tallied.
“Nick Begich is at 40% and so he’s not where she was, either at the beginning of her two-year term or at any point through it,” Moore said, “But he has the advantage of being a Republican and not a Democrat, which is how come he won.”
Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy has a 45.1% positive and 46.3% negative score in the survey, with stronger feelings among the latter with 15.2% answering very positive and 29.8% very negative. He’s in the third year of his second consecutive term and thus will be forced to step aside this year, and as a strong Trump supporter has spent much of the time since the election outside the state engaging in both political activities as well as policy missions such as meeting with foreign officials about a proposed natural gas pipeline.
Also included in Moore’s survey was Elon Musk, a senior advisor appointed by Trump to oversee a newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which is causing massive disruption via mass firings and spending cuts — many of which have been deemed illegal by judges and/or reversed for other reasons. Musk got a 42.6%-51.9% positive-negative rating, with 23.6% very positive (higher than everyone else but Trump) and 43.2% very negative (highest among the six officials rated).
“Obviously he’s become a household name…(but) he’s, relatively speaking, a liability to Trump,” Moore said.
Participants in the survey were also asked about key Trump administration issues including his imposed/threatened tariffs on various countries, the Russia-Ukraine war and withdrawing from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Responses were nearly evenly split on whether the U.S. should continue providing money and weapons to Ukraine, with 44% answering yes, 45.9% no and 10.1% offering no opinion. However, respondents overwhelmingly rejected Trump’s false claim Ukraine is responsible for being invaded, with 70.1% stating Russia started it, 4.8% blaming Ukraine and 25.1% answering both.
There was also disagreement with Trump’s threat to withdraw from NATO, with 26.5% in favor, 57.1% opposed and 16.4% offering no opinion.
Similarly, opposition was expressed to imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico with 36.9% favoring and 50.4% opposed, but there was support for tariffs on China with 55% in favor and 32.1% opposed.
Trump is also being accused of uprooting international relations by embracing traditional adversaries such as Russia while spurning longtime allies such as Canada. But survey respondents seem to be sticking to more traditional sentiments, with overall favorable opinions toward the United Kingdom (59.9%-15.6%), France (50.3%-19.1%), Germany (52.8%-14.7%), Canada (67.7%-16%) and Mexico (45.9%-30.5%).
Negative overall responses were offered for Russia (8.3%-70.9%), China (12.6-63.1%) and North Korea (2.3%-82.9%).
The survey of 1,371 adults who have previously participated in polls by Moore’s company was conducted from March 6 to 14. An overview of its results notes “data was weighted to Alaska population proportions by Alaska boroughs and regions, and by age, race, gender, education level, party affiliation, and the 2024 vote for President.”
• Contact Mark Sabbatini at mark.sabbatini@juneauempire.com or (907) 957-2306.
