Alaska’s three Electoral College votes are going to Republican former President Donald Trump unless there’s an upset of historic proportions. But for residents thinking their vote is completely irrelevant in that race, there’s a remote possibility a single Alaska resident will choose the next commander in chief.
And in such a case, another lone individual from Alaska could determine the next vice president.
There’s a 0.2% chance of a 269-269 Electoral College vote tie in Tuesday’s presidential election as of midday Monday, according to the polling website Five Thirty Eight. Assuming all the electors vote faithfully when they meet next month — not a 100% certainty — that means the outcome would be decided after the next U.S. House is sworn in, with the delegation in each of the 50 states getting one vote (D.C. is excluded).
That’s where the outcome of Alaska’s supposedly dead-even congressional race between incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican challenger Nick Begich III may have a far bigger historical significance than simply who is the state’s lone U.S. House member for the next two years. Their vote will count the same as the majority preference of California’s 52 House members.
Begich has endorsed — and been endorsed by — Trump. Peltola has declined to endorse Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, but has said she won’t vote for Trump.
An inquiry by the Empire to Peltola’s campaign about who she would vote for in the event of an Electoral College tie did not receive a response as of mid-afternoon Monday.
However, even in the unlikely event of an Electoral College tie it’s unlikely the outcome of the presidential vote in the House will depend on the winner of Alaska’s race.
Republicans currently hold a 26-22 edge over Democrats when it comes to the majority party of state delegations. That means Democrats will have to exceed expectations in Tuesday’s congressional races — current polling shows the number of competitive districts are evenly divided by the two parties — and/or Republican-led delegations defect during the vote in the House.
Such a scenario assumes Peltola, or a Democratic delegation from another state, doesn’t cast a ballot for Trump based on a majority of voters in that state opting for the Republican candidate.
Also, the winner in a House vote must get 26 votes — if there’s a 25-25 tie the members keep voting until the deadlock ends.
The vice president, meanwhile, would be selected by a vote of the Senate, with either Democrat Tim Walz or Republican J.D. Vance needing at least 51 votes. That means the president and vice president could be from different political parties, a situation that hasn’t existed since President John Adams (Federalist) and Vice President Thomas Jefferson (Democratic-Republican) served between 1797 and 1801.
Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski has made headlines by declaring her support for Peltola in her race and expressed dismay about the possibility of Trump being reelected. The Senate has a current Democrat-led majority of 51-49, which means Murkowski — whose seat is not among those up for reelection — could be the pivotal vote if a seat or two changes in Tuesday’s election.
“This incredibly unlikely scenario has not been internally speculated on, but the Senator will cross that bridge if we come to it,” Joe Plesha, a Murkowski spokesperson, wrote in an email statement to the Empire on Monday. “We all hope for a clear winner as soon as possible following the election so the country can move forward.”
Alaska’s other Republican U.S. senator, Dan Sullivan, has endorsed Trump.
Election officials in Alaska and nationwide have said the outcome of many races —especially deadlocked contests such as for president and Alaska’s House seat — are unlikely to be known on Election Night due to uncounted mail and other outstanding ballots. National and battleground state polls show Trump and Harris statistically tied, while the Cook Political Report rates the Peltola-Begich race a toss-up.
A total of 17 states — including Alaska — accept mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day, as long as they’re postmarked by Tuesday. Also, Alaska’s ranked choice voting means that if a candidate doesn’t get a majority of first-choice in a state race, including the House contest, the winner will be determined by a tabulation of second-choice and subsequent preference votes 15 days after Election Day.
• Contact Mark Sabbatini at mark.sabbatini@juneauempire.com or (907) 957-2306.
