There’s “anecdotal” signs this year’s tourism season may take a hit due to canceled bookings and people putting vacation plans on hold due to tariffs and other actions by President Donald Trump that are raising widespread economic concerns, several local and state officials said Thursday.
Projections Juneau could get 1.6 million to 1.7 million cruise ship passengers this year — essentially equal to record highs set the past two years — are based on analysis conducted before Trump took office, according to officials making separate presentations at the Alaska State Capitol and to the Greater Juneau Chamber of Commerce. But they said a new element of uncertainty now exists due to Trump policies such as mass firings and funding cuts that could affect destinations such as national parks.
“We’re hearing anecdotally that some people are like, ‘Well if Glacier Bay is closed (and) if the Mendenhall Glacier is closed, I’m coming to Alaska to see ice so why would I go now?” said Meilani Schijvens, owner of Rain Coast Data, following a presentation to the chamber about Southeast Alaska’s economic outlook. “However is that just a few people? Nobody knows.”
Talk of a recession by economic experts is growing as the S&P 500 on Thursday slid into “market correction” status with a drop of more than 10% from its peak a month ago, which could affect the mindset of U.S. residents pondering vacation plans. Furthermore, cancellations by people in other countries are already being reported due to hostility provoked by Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs targeting a multitude of countries.
“We know there are campaigns in Canada to boycott the U.S.,” said Alexandra Pierce, tourism manager for the City and Borough of Juneau. “I’ve heard some anecdotal things from my counterpart in Haines who went to a travel show in Vancouver and people were coming by her booth saying ‘not this year.’”
Canadians account for about 10% of Alaska’s visitors, Pierce said. She said while there may be cancellations of already booked trips by people who are boycotting the U.S., it seems likely that will occur among people with economic concerns.
“If we are going to see cancellations and things like that it’s more likely that it will be people who haven’t booked yet,” she said.
International travel to the U.S. in 2025 is projected to decline 15.2% compared to baseline projections due to Trump’s policies, according to the industry research company Tourism Economics. A roughly 9% increase had been forecast in December, but now a decline of more than 5% is forecast due to “travel sentiment,” “economic pressures” and “exchange range shifts.”
Schijvens, in her presentation, offered slightly higher numbers for past and predicted cruise ship visitors than official CBJ figures provided at the end of last year’s season in October. She stated a record 1.73 million passengers visited Juneau in 2024, and 1.73 million are expected this year and 1.74 million in 2026. In comparison, totals of 1.68 million in 2024 and a projected 1.63 million for 2025 were reported by Pierce last fall.
A projection of 1.6 million cruise ship visitors in Alaska this year was offered Thursday by Dan Stickel, chief economist for the Alaska Department of Revenue, in a presentation to the state Senate Finance Committee.
Jillian Simpson, president of the Alaska Travel Industry Association, told the Anchorage Daily News earlier this week that initial signs of a weakening economy “softened” bookings during February. When asked by the Empire on Thursday how many bookings have been affected, she said she didn’t have firm numbers.
“It’s just what we’re hearing from some members,” she said. “We’re trying to have a better understanding of what is going on. Overall, the forecast for the coming season has been positive with the capacity of ships and air. And then we’ve just heard a handful of businesses sharing that February wasn’t as strong as they would like.”
In a follow-up email, Simpson stated “cruise capacity for the coming summer will be comparable to last year and there is an estimated 5% increase in air with reports of solid bookings through January.”
• Contact Mark Sabbatini at mark.sabbatini@juneauempire.com or (907) 957-2306.
