I predict there will be a lot of snowfall this season.
I believe.
Belief is a powerful thing. That, and the fact that the Gandalfian “you shall not pass” gate has been closed on Basin Road.
“Road closed, November – April. CBJ” it says.
Where does my belief stem from?
This climate just feels like 2009 to me.
That was the year I was hired to help out with photography at the Juneau Empire for a week.
And then another week.
And a month.
The wildly wet weather of October, November and December was mixed with some pretty amazing snowfalls.
It just feels like that again.
Now, that may not be enough to convince you, so I made a few calls.
Unfortunately, Sir Ian Murray McKellen has a phone number I could not obtain.
So I tried the next best thing to wizards.
“We are looking for above-normal temperatures,” Juneau local Kimberly Vaughan said. “They are most likely expected.”
Vaughan is the Observation Program Leader for the National Weather Service in Juneau.
OK, so the title is not exactly like Gandalf changing from “the Gray” to “the White” but, like I said, I was unable to get a hold of Mr. McKellen.
They do, however, have a few similar powers:
• They can read signs in nature and see and understand things that others can’t;
• They can make predictions using those powers;
• They are both highly educated.
Now, on the other hand, Gandalf can communicate with moths and eagles and unleash some god-like power when he needs to smite a Balrog.
“The general outlook is that we have a better than normal chance to be warmer than normal,” Vaughan said. “It is not that we are forecasting that we will get less snow and it is going to be warmer, but the signatures are showing that we have a better chance for it to be warmer than normal which then correlates to less snowfall. That is not to say that we couldn’t get a lot of snow on a particular day or on several days. This is the seasonal outlook, opposed to a daily.”
As a sports editor studying weather maps, I see the early season predictions (October through December) show this warmth, and the second half of winter (January through March) are also appearing above normal on temperatures.
And the precipitation amounts, which could fall as either rain or snow, are looking or have the potential to be, wetter than normal.
The first half of winter has already shown that, and I have been resizing my skis to fit my Xtratufs.
“The second half is looking like it could be equal chances,” Vaughan said. “Meaning there is no strong signature to say it looks good that it might be wetter or dryer.”
Now, I realize that if you don’t speak any of the Middle Earth meteorologist dialects, this sounds confusing.
It really isn’t.
There are more forces here than meet the eye.
“It is that El Niño thing,” Vaughan said.
It seems weather likes to churn around like a recipe in a crock pot, and El Niño years definitely have some seasoning ingredients to add.
“Dynamical models and ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)-based statistical models are in great agreement on the predicted temperature pattern…” to quote the local weather service’s outlook.
For the skier who does not speak the Elvish lingo, this means there is so much going on that there is just no one thing that you can look at and say how much snow will fall.
A strong El Niño gives more potential for warmer weather.
Such years were 1982, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002 and 2009.
However, many of those years, even though they were El Niño years, had a lot of variation to their patterns. For example ’82 was very dry over Southeast and ’97 was dry over most of western Alaska.
“It is not a scenario of if that happened then it is going to happen now,” Vaughan said. “There is no direct correlation to say a potential for similarity.”
In 2009 I remember rain … and snow.
Still not convinced?
Well, I called another wizard, one with actual powers of making snow (take that, Gandalf).
Eaglecrest Ski Area has very positive voice machine messages: “The 2015-16 winter season is on its way” and “Think snow.”
“I honestly think we are going to have a good season,” said Jeffra Clough, Eaglecrest’sdirector of sales/marketing and snowsports school. “Will it go down as being one of the best in history? I guess that will remain to be seen. Winter is definitely on the way. We are watching the snow line come down the mountain. Things feel different than they did last year. I have seen winters like this where the snow slowly creeps down and then we get a little into November and December and it just starts dumping and we have an amazing season. I have to be positive about it … last year is a distant memory. I think out of the years I have been here, it certainly acted different.”
Eaglecrest has magic even Gandalf has not shown proficiency in.
“I think we learned some things in that season,” Clough said. “I personally, and we as a team, knew how durable man-made snow was … and man-made snow is very durable. That is probably why areas in the rest of the country spend so much money on snowmaking. I think we are going to get snow. I am still looking forward to our scheduled opening on Dec. 5.”
That is the traditional target date for our local hill to open.
Winter is definitely on the way, and when dealing with Winter Balrogs and other things that go bump in the flurries, it is rather interesting to note that Gandalf says “… SHALL not pass…” in the movie, but in the book he bellows “You CANNOT pass…”
As you can see, sometimes when the weather dictates that my skis remain docile or that my path is blocked, I read.
