If a baseball game takes place earlier, when the weather is warmer and there is more light outside, more fans will come.
Seems intuitive, right?
In 2015, the Cleveland Indians put that theory to the test, starting five weekday games against the Kansas City Royals and St. Louis Cardinals at 6:05 p.m. instead of 7:05.
The Indians say the 6:05 weekday start time is more convenient for fans who work downtown or have children in school. The change allowed Cleveland faithful to go to Progressive Field straight after work rather than hang around downtown for an hour and a half, and younger children to return home closer to 9 p.m. rather than 10.
The Pirates are open to change but say adjusting start times would be an advantage and disadvantage for fans.
“We feel that the 7:05 p.m. start time is a convenient time for our fans, a belief that has been reinforced by our fans through survey feedback over the years,” Brian Warecki, Pirates vice president of communications and broadcasting, wrote in an email. “The 7:05 p.m. start time gives an opportunity for fans to commute home from work, gather their friends and family, get ready, perhaps eat dinner and go to the game together. It also allows for the evening rush hour to pass and parking spaces on the North Shore and in downtown to clear of commuter traffic, both critical for our game day traffic and parking management plan.”
The Indians’ test provided enough evidence to warrant changing all Monday through Thursday games in April and May to 6:05 p.m. starts, said Curtis Danburg, the team’s senior director of communications.
“That extra hour swing was a huge positive,” Danburg said.
“Our research showed a couple things. In April or May games, the weather is unpredictable, so for fans’ and player’s convenience that extra hour makes a huge difference with sunlight and temperatures.”
Although an extra hour of sunlight is beneficial, weather data from Weather Underground shows that, on the night of the 12 weekday games, the temperatures at about 6 p.m. were, on average, only one degree warmer than temperatures at 7 p.m.
The difference between average temperatures at 9 and 10 p.m. was even smaller, about 0.6 of a degree.
The Royals have piloted a similar change. Unlike Progressive Field, the Royals’ Kauffman Stadium is not in a downtown area. That hasn’t stood in the way of change. After a season of 6:10 start times for Saturday games, this year the team shifted 10 weekday home games in April and September to 6:15. In total, the defending World Series champions will play 21 home games that start at 6:15.
The Royals organization did not respond to requests for comment.
Attendance records thus far are not particularly helpful when evaluating the effects of this change. In 2015, the Indians ranked 29th out of the 30 MLB teams in attendance, filling an average of 17,806 seats each home game. Through 38 home games this year, Cleveland still ranks second-to-last, averaging 16,634 fans per game. Kansas City, meanwhile, sits at 11th this year after finishing in 10th a year ago.
But Danburg cautioned against reading too far into single-game sales. Confounding factors, such as the fact that Cleveland’s low temperatures in April and May were, on average, almost 7 degrees cooler this year than last, might have caused the drop in attendance, he pointed out.
But once the organization has finished evaluating this year’s data and taken all factors into account, Danburg said he believed the Indians would continue to start games earlier, particularly when school is in session. During the summer months, when children are less likely to have early mornings, getting out of the park before bedtime is less of a concern.
“I find it hard to believe in the summer months, we’d do it,” he said. “But we might discuss having games start earlier in September.”
