University of Alaska Fairbanks researcher Vladimir Romanovsky poses near Fairbanks in a place where permafrost has thawed, causing a surface disruption. (Courtesy Photo | University of Alaska Fairbanks)

University of Alaska Fairbanks researcher Vladimir Romanovsky poses near Fairbanks in a place where permafrost has thawed, causing a surface disruption. (Courtesy Photo | University of Alaska Fairbanks)

Study: Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century

In the Arctic, a high potential of thawing permafrost in the next 30 years.

Seventy percent of the current infrastructure in the Arctic has a high potential to be affected by thawing permafrost in the next 30 years. Even meeting the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement will not substantially reduce those projected impacts, according to a new study published in Nature Communications.

“Much more needs to be done to prepare Alaska and Alaskans for the adverse consequences of coming changes in permafrost and climate,” said Vladimir Romanovsky, a scientist with the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute who has been monitoring permafrost across Alaska for 25 years.

Permafrost is ground that is frozen year-round for a minimum of two years. When it thaws, it can change from solid earth into mud. In many cases, the ground will slump, leading to destructive failure in any structures erected there.

“These observations have led me to believe that the global warming is not a ‘fake’ but the reality,” Romanovsky said. “And here, in Alaska, we are dealing already and will be dealing even more in the near future with this reality.”

Romanovsky is one of the study’s authors, along with researchers from Finland, Norway, Russia and Michigan. The research is the first to explicitly show the amount of fundamental infrastructure across the Northern Hemisphere that is at risk of structural failure from permafrost thaw caused by climate change.

The paper reports that by 2050, about three-quarters of the population now living on permafrost, about 3.6 million people, will be affected by damage to infrastructure from permafrost thaw. In Alaska, about 340 miles of the trans-Alaska oil pipeline traverses ground where near-surface permafrost may thaw by 2050.

“The results show that most fundamental Arctic infrastructure will be at risk, even if the Paris Agreement target is achieved,” the authors write. However, after 2050, attaining the Paris Agreement goals would make a clear difference in potential damage to infrastructure.

The authors looked at measurements of ground temperature, annual thaw depth and other data to make their projections. They note that because of the uncertainties, the amount of infrastructure at risk from permafrost thaw is probably not much smaller than their estimate, but could be substantially larger.

Damage to industrial facilities such as pipelines could lead to major ecosystem disruption if it results in spills. Energy supplies, national security and general economic activity could be adversely affected as well, the authors write. The Yamal-Nenets region in northwestern Siberia is the source of more than one-third of the European Union’s pipeline imports of natural gas, for example.

Many parts of the Arctic’s infrastructure have relatively short lifespans. Planners and engineers need to know in detail where permafrost is most likely to thaw as they plan for replacements, upgrades and maintenance. This study mapped such areas at a resolution of 0.6 miles, allowing them to target mitigation where it is most needed.


• This is a news feature provided by Sue Mitchell of the University of Alaska Fairbanks.


More in News

Bob Girt works with the Alaska Youth Stewards on Prince of Wales Island in 2022. (Photo courtesy of Bethany Goodrich / Sustainable Southeast Partnership)
Threads of the Tongass: Building a sustainable future

“These students can look back and say, ‘I helped build that. I was a contributor.’”

KTOO, Juneau's public radio station, is photographed in Juneau, Alaska, on Friday, July 11, 2025. (Photo by Erin Thompson/Peninsula Clarion)
Public radio facing cuts as Congress moves to pull back funding

KTOO could lose one-third of its budget if the House passes a bill cutting funding for the Corporation of Public Broadcasting

Jasz Garrett / Juneau Empire file photo
The Norwegian Bliss arrives in Juneau on Monday, April 14.
Ships in port for the week of July 19

This information comes from the Cruise Line Agencies of Alaska’s 2025 schedule.… Continue reading

(Michael Penn / Juneau Empire file photo)
Police calls for Thursday, July 17, 2025

This report contains public information from law enforcement and public safety agencies.

Eaglecrest Ski Area. (Ben Hohenstatt | Juneau Empire File)
Hiker rescued from gully at Eaglecrest

The woman got stuck in a gully after taking a wrong turn

(Michael Penn / Juneau Empire file photo)
Police calls for Wednesday, July 16, 2025

This report contains public information from law enforcement and public safety agencies.

The Dimond Courthouse in Juneau, Alaska, is seen in this undated photo. (Michael S. Lockett / Juneau Empire file)
Juneau man pleads guilty to murder of infant

James White pleaded guilty yesterday to the murder of 5-and-half-week-old Kathy White

U.S. Coast Guard Rear Admiral Megan Dean shakes hands with the new Arctic District commander Rear Admiral Bob Little on Friday. Vice Admiral Andrew J. Tiongson, commander of the Pacific Area, smiles. (Jasz Garrett / Juneau Empire)
US Coast Guard receives new commander, new name for Alaska

The Arctic District’s new icebreaker will visit Juneau next month

City and Borough of Juneau City Hall is photographed on July 12, 2025, in Juneau, Alaska. (Photo by Erin Thompson/Juneau Empire file)
Municipal election candidate filing period opens July 18

The filing period runs from July 18 at 8 a.m. to July 28 at 4:30 p.m.

Most Read