A historic drop in the mood of Alaska businesses due to President Donald Trump’s economic policies is being reported in an annual statewide survey, while a soon-to-be-released annual survey of Southeast businesses shows their outlook has dropped from second-highest last year to second-lowest this year in the study’s 16-year history.
The eighth annual statewide study — plus a “Quick Pulse” report featuring data from recent months — by the Alaska Small Business Development Center (SBDC) at the University of Alaska Anchorage reveals “a sharp reversal in small business confidence, economic outlook, and financial outlook in the first months of 2025,” according to a press release issued Thursday.
“Expectations for Alaska’s state economy showed an unprecedented swing, representing the highest level of economic pessimism ever recorded in the survey’s eight-year history,” the release notes. A comparison of responses from the two reports from late 2024 and April of 2025 shows “businesses expecting decline increased from 25% to 63%, and those expecting improvement declined from 46% to 26%.”
Aligned with those responses is preliminary data from the annual Business Climate Survey for Southeast Alaska compiled by Rain Coast Data. A study presented to Juneau business leaders in June of 2024 showed optimism at its second-highest level since the annual reports began in 2010, but that outlook has now been turned upside down.
“This year it’s the second-worst ever and the worst was, of course, in 2020,” Meilani Schijvens, owner of Rain Coast Data, said in an interview Thursday evening, with the earlier year referring to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic when businesses and public gatherings where largely shut down. She said she hopes to release the completed study next week.
Those findings come amidst similarly dismal views from state lawmakers, with the Alaska Senate passing a budget this week with the lowest inflation-adjusted Permanent Fund dividend in history and leaders warning the budget outlook for next year is considerably worse.
Gloomy views are also being expressed nationally with predictions of product shortages, high prices and a recession, and globally with the International Monetary Fund cutting growth forecasts for most countries due to century-high U.S. tariffs.
The SBDC’s Quick Pulse survey shows 61% of businesses reporting supplier price increases due to tariffs, 48% implementing their own price increases in response and 35% are attempting to absorb higher costs without raising prices. Also, political uncertainty under the Trump administration has become an unprecedented concern.
“This is the first time political uncertainty has cracked the top three challenges,” Jon Bittner, SBDC’s state director, said in a prepared statement. “Even during COVID, it didn’t come close. This shows businesses aren’t just responding to market conditions – they’re reacting to a broader sense of instability.”
Some Juneau businesses are reporting impacts from Trump administration policies such as tariffs, although there’s not enough specific information for a clear picture, said Brian Holst, executive director of the Juneau Economic Development Council, in an interview Thursday evening. He said Juneau’s economy is diverse enough to perhaps weather an economic storm better than many communities in Alaska and nationwide.
“We have the seafood industry which is in a tough place — and tariffs hurt our seafood industry probably more than any of our other industries — because so much of our product from Alaska and a lot of products even from our region is exported,” he said. “However, tourism does seem to be strong. The decision for most people to come to Juneau has already been made. Those cruise ships are full. So the fact that we have a strong tourism economy is going to serve us well for these uncertain times.”
Holst said the local mining industry may also see a boost from high metals prices, including gold which is at record levels.
Some city and tourism industry officials have expressed concern about a downturn in what is forecast to be another near-record year for visitors in Juneau. In addition to tariffs, some countries are issuing travel warnings after foreigners have been detained at length or deported by U.S. officials for reasons that have been questioned by attorneys and other legal experts.
The parent company of Alaska Airlines last month reported a higher-than-expected financial loss during the first three months of 2025 and stated it is not releasing a 2025 outlook due to “recent economic uncertainty and volatility.” The industry research firm Tourism Economics, which last December forecast a 9% increase in foreign visitors to the U.S. in 2025, is now predicting a 9.4% decline.
• Contact Mark Sabbatini at mark.sabbatini@juneauempire.com or (907) 957-2306.
