November 2016 will go into the weather record books as something close to normal, but Juneauites should start digging out their cold-weather gear, as December promises some of the chilliest weather in two years.
According to the final figures from the National Weather Service office here, Juneau averaged a temperature of 37 degrees in November, 3.6 degrees above normal. That’s only the 18th warmest at the airport (the city’s official measuring point) since recordkeeping started in 1936.
It’s nevertheless enough to keep the city on pace for its warmest year on record, which came last year.
In the short term, temperatures are set to drop drastically. The Weather Service is predicting single-digit lows at night during the start of next week, as a storm moving through Juneau re-forms in the Yukon and directs cold air south.
The National Climate Prediction Center expects temperatures throughout Alaska to be at or below normal during December, and in Southeast Alaska, there’s a significant chance for below-normal temperatures.
Notably, the CPC also predicts a high chance of at-normal or below-normal temperatures for the entire Lower 48. That’s the first time in two years the CPC has predicted no above-normal temperatures for at least a portion of the Upper 49.
The conspiracy-toting website Breitbart has used that prediction to claim that temperatures are drastically declining and the nation should expect record-breaking low temperatures.
That isn’t true.
In Juneau, residents haven’t seen a single-digit low temperature since Feb. 7, 2015, and even if that happens again this week, it won’t be unprecedented.
Moreover, in order to avoid having its hottest year on record, Juneau would have to have a December much colder than it saw in 1964, when the city saw an average temperature of 16.4 degrees and set a record that still stands for the coldest December.
Colder weather typically involves drier air, too.
In November, the airport measured 6.55 inches of precipitation, a term that includes rain and melted snow. That figure was 0.56 inches above normal for the month and makes November 2016 the 30th wettest in 80 years of recordkeeping. The wettest November was in 1936, when 16.1 inches of rain were recorded and only a trace of snow was seen.
Only 2.7 inches of snow fell at the airport in November, well below normal, and Juneau’s snowfall total through the start of December is below normal as well.
To date, Juneau has seen 13.1 inches of snow; the average for this point in the season is 23.5 inches.
