Does the Alaska House of Representatives have the votes to approve Alaska’s first income tax since 1980?
“We’re working on it,” Speaker of the House Bryce Edgmon told reporters at a Tuesday morning press conference.
With time winding down in the Alaska Legislature’s 121-day limit, the coalition House Majority’s plan to erase Alaska’s $2.8 billion annual deficit appears to be in trouble.
The coalition is backing House Bill 115, which includes a statewide income tax and spending from the earnings of the Permanent Fund to erase much of the deficit. A separate measure, House Bill 111, would increase oil production taxes and cut oil drilling subsidies to deal with remaining parts of the deficit.
Now, some of the coalition’s members are wavering on the income tax.
“I’m still not a 100 percent ‘yes’ when it hits the floor,” said Rep. Jason Grenn, I-Anchorage, on Tuesday.
Rep. Dan Ortiz, I-Ketchikan, also declined to say that he is a firm “yes” vote.
“Parts of House Bill 115 will change and need to change,” he said.
The House Majority has 22 members: 3 Republicans, 17 Democrats, and 2 independents. If Ortiz and Grenn aren’t certain “yes” votes in a vote of the full House, that would leave the majority one vote shy of what’s needed to pass the bill.
In addition to serving as members of the majority, Grenn and Ortiz are members of the powerful House Finance Committee, which is considering HB 115.
With Grenn and Ortiz uncertain, the committee abruptly canceled a Tuesday afternoon meeting that had been scheduled to pass the bill to a vote of the full House.
Committee co-chairman Paul Seaton, R-Homer and author of HB 115, said the cancellation came because legislative staff needed more time to re-draft the bill to incorporate amendments passed Monday.
Rep. Cathy Tilton, R-Wasilla and a member of the finance committee, doesn’t believe that.
“I think they’re having a hard time, or it would’ve already went,” she said.
Tilton is a member of the House’s Republican minority, and other members of that minority also believe the majority is having problems finding enough votes for a bill that contains an income tax.
“Being canceled today is a good indicator,” Tilton said.
While the income tax is favored by a majority of Southeast residents, according to statewide polling, it remains unpopular in the rest of the state. It is unclear whether a single member of the Republican minority will vote in its favor.
“They don’t have the votes for 115,” said Rep. Lance Pruitt, R-Anchorage and a minority member of the finance committee.
Grenn said his principal concern is how the income tax relates to trusts. How would it affect someone who relies on a trust for their income?
“I need to be comfortable explaining that,” Grenn said. “It doesn’t affect very many people, but those it does affect, it affects in a big way. That could be a big thing that could make the bill not worth it.”
Ortiz said he expects only that the bill will change before it leaves the committee.
Leaving the committee is a significant milestone. That would show that it has the support of Grenn and Ortiz and would be likely to pass.
“I think so,” said Rep. Les Gara, D-Anchorage and vice-chairman of the finance committee, when asked whether the bill is likely to pass a floor vote. “I’ve counted wrong before, but I’m pretty confident.”
• Contact reporter James Brooks at james.k.brooks@juneauempire.com or call 419-7732.
