ADF&G says to expect 34M pinks in ’16

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game is forecasting a 2016 pink salmon run about the same size as the one that greeted fishermen this past summer.

This week, the department estimated 34 million pink salmon be harvested in Southeast Alaska next summer. That’s the same number that was harvested this summer, but that may not mean much — pink salmon run in two-year cycles, and there’s little relation between the fish that returned this year and the ones that will return next year.

Pink salmon make up the majority of fish harvested in Southeast Alaska and Alaska as a whole, and the fishing industry is one of the foundations of Southeast Alaska’s economy. This summer, fishermen caught 46.2 million salmon in Southeast; 74 percent were pink salmon.

The 34 million figure estimated for 2016 is below the 10-year average for Southeast Alaska, but that’s partially because the mammoth 2013 harvest brought 89.2 million pinks ashore.

With a 51-year average, 34 million fish is above average.

“Pink salmon returns are notoriously difficult to forecast,” the Southeast Alaska Coastal Monitoring Project warns on its website.

That project, an effort of the federal Alaska Fisheries Science Center, produces a parallel forecast to the one produced by ADF&G.

Chinook and sockeye salmon spend multiple winters at sea, allowing forecasters to get a better idea of their survival rate. That isn’t possible with pink salmon, which tends to hurt accuracy.

For this summer, NOAA predicted 54.5 million Southeast pinks, while ADF&G estimated 58 million fish. The actual harvest was more than 20 million lower.

Adding to forecasters’ woes are the “anomalously warm sea surface temperatures that have persisted throughout the Gulf of Alaska,” this year’s ADF&G estimate states.

A pulse of warm water has occupied the eastern Gulf since fall 2013, bringing species like bonito, pompano and sunfish to unfamiliar waters. These fish may be competing with or eating juvenile pink salmon, reducing returns.

In addition, the ADF&G report states that even-year returns to northern inside waters of the Panhandle have been particularly poor. In 2014 — the fish returning in 2016 are from that age class — 17 of 21 northern inside pink salmon stocks failed to meet minimum escapement levels set by ADF&G.

Poor returns would bring more bad news for fishermen who endured plunging prices this summer.

According to figures published in October by ADF&G, the price of Southeast pink salmon has dipped sharply from what it was in 2014. The dip is being attributed to a global glut of pinks caused by banner harvests in Russia and the recovery of farmed salmon stocks harmed by a viral infestation.

In 2014, Southeast fishermen earned about $36.7 million for 37 million pink salmon. This year, they earned $26.2 million for 34 million pinks.

Barring an unexpected drop in harvests overseas, pink salmon prices are expected to remain low in 2016.

More in News

Michael Penn / Juneau Empire File
The Aurora Borealis glows over the Mendenhall Glacier in 2014.
Aurora Forecast

Forecasts from the University of Alaska Fairbanks’ Geophysical Institute for the week of March. 19

The FBI Anchorage Field Office is seeking information about this man in relation to a Wednesday bank robbery in Anchorage, the agency announced Thursday afternoon. Anyone with information regarding the bank robbery can contact the FBI Anchorage Field Office at 907-276-4441 or tips.fbi.gov. Tips can be submitted anonymously.  (FBI)
FBI seeks info in Anchorage bank robbery

The robbery took place at 1:24 p.m. on Wednesday.

Kevin Maier
Sustainable Alaska: Climate stories, climate futures

The UAS Sustainability Committee is hosting a series of public events in April…

Reps. Tom McKay, R-Anchorage, and Andi Story, D-Juneau, offering competing amendments to a bill increasing the per-student funding formula for public schools by $1,250 during a House Education Committee meeting Wednesday morning. McKay’s proposal to lower the increase to $150 was defeated. Story’s proposal to implement an increase during the next two years was approved, after her proposed amounts totalling about $1,500 were reduced to $800.
Battle lines for education funding boost get clearer

$800 increase over two years OKd by House committee, Senate proposing $1,348 two-year increase

A call for a joint session of the Alaska State Legislature to cast a vote that would reject recently-approved salary increases for legislators and top executive branch officials is made by State House Speaker Cathy Tilton, R-Wasilla, during a press conference Tuesday. Senate President Gary Stevens, R-Kodiak, rejected the joint session in a letter to Tilton on Wednesday. (Mark Sabbatini / Juneau Empire)
House efforts to nix legislative pay raises hit Senate roadblock

Call for a joint session rejected by upper chamber, bills to overturn pay hikes may lack support

A simulated photo shows the tailings stack and other features of Hecla Greens Creek Mine under the most aggressive of four alternatives for expanding the mine in an environmental impact assessment published Thursday by the U.S Forest Service. The tailings stack is modestly to drastically smaller in the other alternatives. The public comment period for the study is from March 24 to May 8. (U.S. Forest Service)
New study digs into alternatives for Greens Creek Mine expansion

Public comment starts Friday on four options that could extend mine’s life up to 40 years

This image shows the Juneau Lions Club Gold Medal Basketball Tournament's logo. The club is looking for submissions of logos for the historic tournament's 75th anniversary. The winning artist will receive a $250 prize. (Screenshot)
Take your shot at a Gold Medal logo

Upcoming milestone prompts call for art.

(Michael Penn / Juneau Empire File)
Police calls for Thursday, March 23, 2023

This report contains information from law enforcement and public safety agencies.

The Juneau School Board recently announced the three finalists for the district’s superintendent position: Frank Hauser, Carlee Simon and Thom Peck. The district is hosting a public forum from 6 to 7:30 p.m. on Monday, March 27 at Thunder Mountain High School for students, parents and staff to meet the three candidates. Additionally, the trio will be interviewed by the school board on Tuesday, March 28. (Clarise Larson / Juneau Empire File)
School district announces finalists for superintendent post

Public forum and interviews scheduled for next week.

Most Read