Update: “People will need to bring their rain gear.”
That’s the latest word from National Weather Service meteorologist Wes Adkins on the weather forecast for the Fourth of July. There’s currently a 70 percent chance of at least light rain during the downtown and Douglas parades, and with a low cloud ceiling, fireworks are in jeopardy as well.
“I don’t think there’s hardly any chance of sun,” Adkins said Monday morning. “It’s just going to be wet.”
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Original story:
It’s about a coin flip proposition that Mother Nature may rain on Uncle Sam’s parade.
The National Weather Service is calling for a 40 percent chance of showers on Independence Day after several days of heavy rain. July 3 has a 60 percent chance of rain.
“There’s some uncertainty as to how far in the future these showers will persist,” NWS meteorologist Wes Adkins said in a Saturday phone interview. “Right now, we’re thinking at least through Monday if not through early Monday evening. There’s a pretty good potential for people having to wear their raincoats while watching the fireworks” at midnight July 4.
Adkins is more optimistic for the day of the Fourth of July itself.
“Not all hope is lost as of now,” for a dry backyard barbecue, Adkins said.
Juneau has seen 3.82 inches of rain in the month of June, more than half an inch above the historical average, according to preliminary data from the NWS. May and June are historically Juneau’s two driest months.
Downtown Juneau has seen measurable rain on 55 percent of Independence Days since 1899, according to NWS data. Some of those days have been sunny, Adkins said, and people tend not to remember that it rained.
The NWS has only recorded a half-inch or more of rain downtown on 9 percent of Independence Days, Adkins said. Downtown hasn’t seen a “washout,” an inch or more of rain, since 1961.
The third of July has seen measurable rainfall 58 percent of the time historically. The last washout on July 3 occurred in 1981.
Rain and wind are hugely important to today’s fireworks show, said organizer Gary Stambough, an organizer with the Gastineau Channel fireworks show. Too much wind and fireworks don’t go in the right place. Too much rain or low clouds could mean a bad viewing experience.
Stambough said the organizing crew will know by 3 or 4 p.m. today whether or not they’ll move the fireworks show to Tuesday, the backup date.
“We’d be looking for if the winds are too strong, we don’t get the shells to where we want them in the area. If it’s just pouring down rain, it’s really difficult to be looking up into the sky with raindrops,” Stambough said.
• Contact reporter Kevin Gullufsen at 523-2228 or kevin.gullufsen@juneauempire.com
