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The region would feel the blow, primarily through its transportation system. Airline, ferry and barge prices would increase. The frequency of service would decline.

Jim Calvin, senior partner at the Juneau-based economic research firm The McDowell Group, painted a bleak picture of the economic effects of a capital move on the region at the annual meeting of Southeast Conference on Tuesday. A statewide ballot measure in November asks voters to move legislative sessions to Anchorage and then the Matanuska-Susitina Borough.

"Juneau gets hammered, Juneau's residents lose $1 billion in property values. We lose one-third of our economy. It's simply devastating," Calvin told the region's community and business leaders at the Southeast Conference meeting in Craig. "The bottom line is it affects everyone in the region one way or another."

The purpose of the study was to measure the effects of a capital move on Southeast Alaska. Moving the Legislature is the first step toward a capital move, Calvin said.

"The economic consequences associated with the legislative move, it's pretty severe really," he said. "It's 380 jobs, a mix of resident and nonresident. Ten million (dollars) in payroll - that's more than our largest private sector employer. So by itself the loss of the Legislature has significant economic impacts."

State government accounts for 4,250 jobs and $171 million in annual payroll in Juneau. It accounts for 45 percent of the community's basic sector employment and 50 percent of its income, the study found.

"We're a one-horse town in terms of our economy and it's state government and it's the capital," Calvin said.

The study estimates 2,700 state government jobs would move from Juneau if the capital went north. The effects of the hit would trickle out to stores, schools and health-care providers, resulting in a loss of 5,000 total jobs, $175 million in annual payroll and 8,000 residents, Calvin said. Juneau's population is about 31,000.

As for the region's health, Southeast Alaska doesn't have another significant economic activity to offset the effects of a capital move, Calvin said. The cost of air, barge and ferry transportation will increase and frequency of service will decrease because there will be fewer people and things to move to the region. In turn, tourism and seafood business will be hurt, the study said.

"Perhaps one on the scariest parts is the future decline of Southeast Alaska's political clout," Calvin said. "Southeast's population isn't growing anywhere near as much as Anchorage and Mat-Su and it shows in the debate over the ferry system. Essentially they gain political control over the state."

Juneau's business and civic leaders are using this week's annual meeting of Southeast Conference to rally the region's favor against a legislative move. Mayor Sally Smith said the study will help Juneau make its case.

"I think the study is really going to give people the factual basis to understand that this isn't just happening to Juneau, it's happening to our whole region, it's happening to our businesses," she said. "We're really an interwoven fabric and so when we start losing jobs in Juneau we also start losing the commerce that's attached to those jobs."

Juneau has had a somewhat rocky relationship with some of the region's communities because of battles over federal timber policy in recent years. Ketchikan Borough Mayor Jack Shay said recent letters from Smith supporting the timber industry and opposing more Tongass wilderness area designations have gone a long way to improve relations.

Craig Mayor Dennis Watson agreed Juneau has made strides in improving regional relations. And he expressed concern after hearing the report's conclusions about transportation.

"If we lose the Legislature or the capital I think we're going to lose a tremendous amount of service from Alaska Airlines or the other air carriers," he said. "That to me is the most important thing. That's what holds Southeast together right now."

Joanna Markell can be reached at joannam@juneauempire.com.