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WASHINGTON - A recent poll shows Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leading incumbent Ted Stevens in the U.S. Senate race.
Begich has edge on Stevens, poll shows 061008 STATE 2 Fairbanks Daily News-Miner WASHINGTON - A recent poll shows Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leading incumbent Ted Stevens in the U.S. Senate race.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Story last updated at 6/10/2008 - 9:23 am

Begich has edge on Stevens, poll shows

WASHINGTON - A recent poll shows Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leading incumbent Ted Stevens in the U.S. Senate race.

The survey found 51 percent of those responding would vote for Begich in November's general election, compared to 44 percent who said they would back Stevens.

The poll indicates Begich is gaining name recognition across the state, but Stevens, who has served in the Senate since 1968, also remains popular.

Some 58 percent of responders said they felt very or somewhat positive toward Begich, while only 16 percent had a negative opinion of the 45-year-old Democratic mayor. Eleven percent of those responding didn't know of Begich.

For Stevens, the numbers were a little closer - 49 percent had a positive opinion, while 40 percent had a negative opinion. All of the survey's 269 responders knew Stevens was the state's senior senator.

Stevens' bid to win a seventh full term in the Senate has been overshadowed by an ongoing corruption investigation by the U.S. Justice Department. Stevens has not been charged with any wrongdoing.

High name recognition may partially explain why the poll shows Stevens beating challenger Dave Cuddy by 15 percentage points in the Republican primary. More than 42 percent of poll participants said they had no idea who Cuddy was.

The poll did not ask about the Democratic primary, in which Begich faces Ray Metcalfe, founder of the Moderate Republican Party, and Frank Vondersaar. It also did not contain questions about the other seven long-shot candidates who hope to serve as Alaska's next senator.

Half of those responding to the survey had no party affiliation or were registered Independents. Registered Republicans made up 27 percent of respondents; Democrats made up 22 percent.

The poll was conducted between May 6 and May 10 by Anchorage firm Hellenthal and Associates. It has a 6 percent margin of error.

The survey was paid for by Sam Kito, a lobbyist whose clients include the North Slope Borough.

House race

In the U.S. House race, nearly 42 percent of respondents said they would vote for former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz in the Democratic primary, compared to 30 percent who said they preferred Diane Benson. Nearly 29 percent said they were still undecided.

In the general election, Berkowitz would beat incumbent Don Young by a wide margin, 58 percent to 38 percent, according to the poll.

However, a match up between Berkowitz and Republican Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell would likely go to Parnell, who received 43 percent to Berkowitz' 38 percent in the survey.

Some 41 percent of those taking the poll had a positive opinion of Berkowitz, while only 13 percent noted a negative opinion. Twenty-six percent said they were neutral on the question of how they felt about Berkowitz, while nearly 21 percent had no idea who he was. Parnell and Benson had similar numbers in the unknown column.

Benson's positives were 35 percent, compared to 12 percent who said they had a negative opinion of her. More than 25 percent said they had not made up their mind about her.

Parnell has a slim lead on Young (37 percent to 34 percent) in the GOP primary, though it's still within the margin of error. Kodiak state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux was a distant third with just 8 percent of the vote. Some 15 percent of those responding said they were still undecided.

Nearly 46 percent of those asked had a positive opinion of Parnell. Only 8 percent said they had a negative opinion and 25 percent said they had a no opinion.

Young, a Republican whose close ties to lobbyists have prompted federal investigators to take a closer look at his activities, had more lopsided results: 35 percent positive, 52 percent negative, 13 percent undecided. Young denies any wrongdoing and has not been charged with a crime.

The poll found 12 percent of those asked had a positive opinion of Republican state representative LeDoux, while 10 percent had a negative opinion and 27 percent were undecided. More than half of the respondents did not recognize LeDoux's name.

The poll did not contain questions about Frank Frost of Anchorage and Don Wright of Kenai, who have filed to run in the House race under the Alaska Independence Party banner.

The House and Senate primary elections are Aug. 26.

Palin and the pipeline

Gov. Sarah Palin also got high marks in the Hellenthal poll. Some 82 percent of respondents said they had positive feelings about the Republican governor, while only 10 percent felt somewhat negative or very negative toward her.

David Dittman of Dittman Research got similar results in a separate poll conducted during the first week of May.

"Alaskans seem to really like Sarah, and the increases in taxes and state spending don't seem to cause her to be considered a 'liberal' to most Alaskans," Dittman said in an e-mail.

Dittman queried voters on whether they thought the Republican governor was liberal or conservative. Fewer than one out of 10 considered Palin to be quite or very liberal, while 40 percent thought she was quite or very conservative. Another 42 percent said she was a more "middle of the road" Republican.

Palin's personal popularity consistently runs close to 85 percent, Dittman said.

Her numbers dip somewhat when it comes to her handling of the natural gas pipeline and the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act.

"It's not that Alaskans reject her pipeline efforts by any means; 70 percent give her quite or very good marks for the job she is doing regarding getting a natural gas pipeline built," Dittman said. "But that doesn't necessarily lead to support for AGIA."

Only 24 percent said they disapproved of the job Palin is doing on the gas line.

Alaskans are more divided over which pipeline proposal the state should pursue. Some 42 percent of those surveyed said they support the BP-ConocoPhillips plan. Thirty-one percent said they preferred the TransCanada pipeline proposal. Twenty-four percent said they were unsure.

"Overall, I think she gets credit for trying, but Alaskans would actually prefer the producers," Dittman said.

The main sticking points of the TransCanada proposal, which legislators are reviewing in a special session in Juneau, appear to be the $500 million in state subsidies and a provision that would allow TransCanada to recover three times its investment should the state back out, Dittman said.

The Dittman Research statewide survey included a sample of 421 respondents and has a margin of error of roughly 5 percent.


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