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Facing population decline and stagnant growth, Juneau needs a plan to foster new businesses, according to a report released by the Juneau Economic Development Council.
Study: City's economy is going nowhere 060805 local 1 JuneauEmpire Facing population decline and stagnant growth, Juneau needs a plan to foster new businesses, according to a report released by the Juneau Economic Development Council.

Study: City's economy is going nowhere

Percentage of young people in Juneau lower than nat'l average

Facing population decline and stagnant growth, Juneau needs a plan to foster new businesses, according to a report released by the Juneau Economic Development Council.

It's a familiar battle cry of local economists, but executive director Lance Miller said it is becoming more urgent considering local trends and changes in the global economy.

The annual report, borrowing research from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and local consulting firm the McDowell Group, is a collaboration between the JEDC and the Juneau Chamber of Commerce.

The report shows Juneau's economy is about in the same place as it was last year with the per-capita income at $36,437 and the gross borough product nearly $600 million.

"Steady growth is good," Miller said. "But not growing with the rest of the country is what puts us at an economic disadvantage."

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Juneau's population dipped 0.9 percent from 31,246 in 2003 to 30,966 last year. Miller said this is not entirely a bad thing considering many people in Juneau prefer life to remain the same.

But Juneau could use a few more business-minded young people, particularly those between 20 and 35 years old, Miller said. Demographics show Juneau has a lower percentage of people in those age groups than Fairbanks, Anchorage and the national average.

For example, 20 to 29 year olds make up 11 percent of Juneau's population, compared to the state average of 12.8 percent and the national figure at 13.7.

The largest age group for Juneau - 19 percent - was people in their 40s, many of whom came to the capital for state and federal jobs in the 1980s and are approaching retirement age, possibly leaving a window of opportunity for more youth employment, Miller said.

Juneau's high cost of living may be a factor in either people leaving the city or not locating here for employment, Miller said. The report showed an increase in every category, from housing to groceries, and that Juneau was the most expensive town compared to all major cities in Alaska and Washington.

Compared to a mean composite regional housing-cost rating of 100 points, Juneau was over the mark at 145 points and Anchorage and Fairbanks were at 131 and 133, respectively. Olympia, Wash. had the region's lowest housing-cost rating with 94.5 points.

Rising fuel costs have driven up the prices of groceries and other goods that must be shipped into Juneau. Miller said competition lowers prices and if Wal-Mart opens a store it could affect prices.

Housing costs could drop significantly if more affordable land was available for construction of homes, Miller said. The report showed residential construction declining from 193 units in 2003 to 141 units in 2004.

Wal-Mart officials have bought property in Juneau and plan to open an outlet next year. Miller said it would benefit the retail sector and boost the gross regional product, and it would strengthen Juneau as a regional hub.

"But it would hurt retail stores in surrounding towns," Miller said. And the money spent there will not be new dollars, but redistributed wealth.

Employment rose by 132 jobs to 17,464 in 2003 and monthly wages increased from $2,874 in 2002 to $3,018 in 2003, with workers in the mining, tourism and fishing industries seeing the best improvements. A record 900,000 cruise ship passengers are expected this summer.

A chart showing a 3.4 percent increase in Juneau residents' personal income from 2002-2003, which factors non-wage wealth such as stocks and company pensions, is positive, Miller said. This will be new money going into the local economy, with a portion spent on leisure activities.

Other economic growth engines could come from future projects such as the Kensington mine, a second high school, a university laboratory at Lena Point and expansion at Bartlett Regional Hospital.

• Andrew Petty can be reached at andrew.petty@juneauempire.com



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