Most significantly, it may change the flavors of your favorite beers. The trend toward hop-heavy beers in the past few years, especially in the Northwest, from big pale ales to dry-hopped India Pale Ales and the extreme imperial styles, may decline. If the price of IPAs has to rise exponentially with the high cost of ingredients, they are going to be prohibitive for the producer and the consumer.

I can already see this reverse trend, away from highly hopped beers, happening. Reading Dr. Fermento's column last week, he mentioned a "quick announcement for Midnight Sun Brewing Company" regarding the complete reformulation of Oosik Amber. Declining sales was the stated reason, but I found the timing of the reformulation interesting. The new Oosik, described by Fermento as a product "logarithmically better than its predecessor" and "an excellent upgrade," now "more resembles a Märzen . . . with hops primarily in the background." I don't recall the Oosik amber being overly hoppy, but I bet the hops in the reformulation did not increase.

This recipe tweaking is going to become more common in the marketplace, and the lack of affordable ingredients, or lack of ingredients in general, may put a damper on the innovation and experimentation of hoppier beer styles. There could be a deviation in creating and reformulating styles, possibly including the use of alternative ingredients, but most likely moving away from extremely hopped beers.

Paul Wheeler from the Haines Brewing Company is already experiencing these woes regarding his Eldred Rock Red, which depends on Cascade hops for its profile. He can't get any. What to do? He's going the alternative ingredients route. With the ingredients for Eldred Rock unavailable, he is ramping up production of Spruce Tip Ale, a really lovely beer that relies on spruce to dominate the flavor profile over hop character. He also has another batch of Poor Richards Ale on the way, to be served at the Great Alaska Beer and Barley Wine Festival in Anchorage. Poor Richards is an old ale style made with few hops and molasses. Paul is practicing what I see as a trend created by the hop calamity, moving away from the hop-heavy beers and back to using alternative ingredients.

I am not alone in thinking the industry is up for a change. Darin Jensen, quality assurance analyst from Alaskan Brewing, has a prediction. "Prices are going to go up sooner than I thought, then all the newer breweries which make big hoppy beers are going to have to diversify and find new ways to create extreme beers."

Never lacking innovation and a creative approach, the beer industry will adjust, and I have no doubt beer will always persevere. And though there will always be beer, the industry may be in for a shift of scene in forthcoming beer styles. You may want to enjoy the hops while you can.